Run of Positive Harris Coverage Cyclical

"The Media" -- now "helping" VP Harris -- will become more problematic;

I hadn’t planned on writing ANYTHING about the 2024 presidential race. 

It’s just not a focal point of this new, experimental Substack.

But the events surrounding Joe Biden, the ongoing ascension of V.P. Kamala Harris, and the sky-high wave of positive media coverage she's currently enjoying is too interesting to ignore.

One thing's for sure: The race was a desultory, depressing, downer for voters and media alike. It's now the best news story on the planet -- a big, fascinating, roiling storyline unfolding in real time with minute-by-minute drama, pathos and unpredictability.  

Because of the newfound public interest and engagement, my first point of order:

It’s quite likely Harris will get a polling bump and even lead Trump, but we need to wait about 7/10/14 days to assess the actual state of the race as the initial avalanche of polling comes out of the field and into the public domain. Current survey response rates, the demographics of such, and other volatile variables surrounding multiple research methodologies need time to shake out.

Regardless, it will remain a margin or error race.

This is about to get REALLY ugly, REALLY fast.

Erin Schaff/Pool/AFP — Getty Images

The wave of happy talk and optimistic Democratic backslapping weary of Joe Biden is predictable and, frankly, warranted. He’s finally gone.

The huge fundraising numbers combined with Democrats falling in line automaton-like is 'news' and it’s worthy of reporting.

That's underway…for now. But it won't last long.  

The "positive" media vibe?

Also, predictable -- but mostly because of the need and desire for a new storyline. But again, that's just for now (more on that below).      

Besides a structural Electoral College disadvantage, several other fundamentals are working against the Harris candidacy.

Can she win? Sure… but the expectation that “media friends” will objectively referee Trump salvos and “save” her in the long term a canard.

4 fundamentals undermining Kamala Harris win odds:

1 — Candidates themselves win and lose races. The higher you move up on the campaign level, the less it becomes about money and consultants. Watching from close range and from behind closed doors how candidates handle and deal with the pressure is the most fascinating aspect of politics I've personally witnessed.

Pure and simple, the VP has a track record of failure in the 'step-up' to the presidential campaign level (in her defense, few do) — nor has she performed effectively as VP. Yes, that’s subjective, but generally corroborated by public opinion data.

Besides the “lightweight” perception she needs to overcome, Kamala Harris isn’t perceived as capable, strong leader. In many ways she was hamstrung by "Biden-world" from the very beginning — like dumping the immigration issue on her — but that's water under the bridge.  

2 — VP Harris has a record of failure when it comes to successfully managing and keeping quality personnel in both official office and campaign contexts. The skill required to slap together a presidential campaign on the fly -- and while under attack -- is unfathomable. It’s never been done, and her record in this regard is no reason for optimism.

The fact Obama guru David Plouffe is in negotiations to join the Harris team (and likely bring with him a flotilla of competent campaign minds) is a positive. But it's analogous to Bush-era guru Jim Baker coming in at the tail end to salvage the 1992 Bush/Quayle effort — long after the race parameters had been defined and campaign spending decisions actualized.

3 — Kamala Harris remains the incumbent. Presidential races are a referendum on incumbent performance. While a stretch to deem her the "border czar" it’s also fair to say she has a tangential, undeniable linkage. She’ll also have culpability for economic conditions. Immigration and the economy are the two most salient issues on the ballot. Not good.

And attempting to explain away how there was a “tough new immigration law” ready to enact — but torpedoed by Trump for political benefit — will get lost in the blur and barrage of video imagery (real or doctored) on voters’ TV’s, tablets and phones.

Are there some positive economic indices to spotlight? Objectively, yes.

But I don't believe VP Harris has the (proven) communications and media skills to convey a bright economic future under her future leadership. Nor do I believe she can overcome what Americans see with their own eyes at the supermarket regarding food prices, consumer non-durables and other mainstays of daily life.

4 — The "Prosecutor versus Criminal" line of attack unveiled by V.P Harris is a great way to fire up the troops… and there’s been good coverage today of this salvo at Trump. But Harris has opened a can of worms.

Of course Trump can be attacked for his criminal conviction and the myriad day to day charges of criminality rattling around in an echo-chamber of homogeneity. But these attacks and general thrust of “Trump as criminal” have been litigated ad infinitum — for years. Unless there’s some new news or new facet it's just not compelling. It seems, though, that the only news around this general issue cluster lately has been good news for Trump.

Further, the Kamala Harris record as a prosecutor? Not well examined in the crucible of the presidential arena. It's a big vulnerability “The Media” will examine, will cover, and that the Trump campaign will exploit.

Her prosecutorial record will be attacked not just by the Trump campaign, but the media will cover it. Not just because its a “new” attack in the context of her presidential candidacy — but because the Trump team will surely add "illegal alien murders" to the already volatile equation.

And they’ve already started working that angle. But the significance is that it will weave an existing Biden-Harris policy failure with a new Harris-specific political vulnerability.

“In fighting crime, don’t let her do to America what she did to California.”

“Fair?”… please. This is an MMA cage fight.

The brutal attacks like those dumped on hapless 1988 Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis’s “soft on crime” record are imminent.

Predictable as the sunrise.

Also predictable will be the howls of protest from the Harris forces that “the media” is doing Trump’s dirty work.

Let’s see, long term, how good a “friend” the New York Times, Washington Post and other dominant media end up being to Harris.

It's now a race to the bottom, and Trump excels in this type of feral combat.

At the end of the day "The Media" may be “helping” her here at the outset, but longer term the collective media is an equal opportunity wrecking ball.

Trump has plenty of vulnerabilities, but Vice President Harris has many more — plenty of which will get sustained coverage the Harris campaign doesn’t yet anticipate.